That, according to analyst Canalys, who today supplied Channel News with predictions about the Aussie smartphone market, makes for interesting reading:
Apple phone will slump 5%, but still account for one in three phones, or 34%, by 2017.
Meanwhile leader Android, the operating system Samsung, HTC and LG found success on, too will slump 10% to 44%.
But the big surprise is almost one in five of us will own a Microsoft-operated smartphone - jumping from just 3% now to over 17% marketshare by 2017.
Nokia, HTC and Samsung already sell devices on the fledgling Windows 8 Phone platform released last year, with many more soon to follow.
"We expect quite a bit of competition from other operating systems, especially Microsoft's Windows Phone," Jessica Kwee, a Canalys analyst based in Singapore, told Channel News.
OS vendor 2012 2017
Apple 39.0% 34.7%
BlackBerry 1.9% 2.8%
Microsoft 3.7% 17.2%
Nokia 1.4% 0.0%
OHA (Android) 53.7% 44.4%
Others 0.4% 0.8%
Total 8.8 million 11.7m
In total, 11.7 million smartphones are set to be shipped in 2017 - a rise of 3 million compared to 2012.
|Trend-wise, the Aussie predictions are somewhat similar to Canalys global forecasts released yesterday, indicating Google Android will have global domination of the mobile market, accounting for 2 out of 3 phones sold. |
"Apple has a much larger market share in Australia, given its strong brand, and Apple's strong retail channels as well," Jessica Kwee, a Canalys analyst based in Singapore, told CN.
Since the Aussie smartphone market is mature (almost 50% own a smartphone) volume growth will be "relatively modest".