2011 Prediction: 70m Tabs Sold, iPad King & Mini Notebooks To Die

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And there will also be a surprise market sweethearts: RIM PlayBook.iPad makers Apple look set to rule the roost when it comes to tabs – but only until 2015, says Garter, who predicts the brand who masterminded the device will have almost 70% grip of the market this year, selling a whopping 48m.

Blackberry maker Research In Motion who is debuting its PlayBook slate to Australian media tomorrow, will take the No.3 position this year on its QNX platform.

The PlayBook will be a sweetheart among enterprise in particular, it seems. But No. 2 player Google will also be a strong contender and grow share to 40 per cent by 2015, eating into iPad’s popularity. Samsung Galaxy tab runs on Google and it remains to be seen if its revamped version will pose a threat to Apple’s second creation.

“It will be mainly organisations that will be interested in RIM’s tablets because they either already have RIM’s infrastructure deployed or have stringent security requirements,” Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi said.

However, in four years time, iPad dominance will decline to less than 50 %, as Steve Jobs giant loses out to its Android foe, say the analysts.

It expects a phenomenal 70 million media tablets to be sold this year in total and 108 million by 2012.

This compares to just 17.6 m sales last year, the first year slates came to life. 

However, as one thing comes to life, others must die. And it seems the victim will be mini-notebooks and ‘low end laptops’ rather than the trusty PC.

“I think a lot of the tablet sales will be additive, not just subtracting from PC sales,” says Milanesi.

 

“But we do see some displacement on the mobile PC side, definitely for mini-notebooks and low-end laptops. It will probably lengthen the replacement cycle for the PCs that are out there.”

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