Hot on the heels of a prediction by Ovum last week that 2011 is the year of the Android, IDC has published its forecast of the smartphone landscape in 2015, which is growing at four times the rate of the overall mobile phone market.According to the analyst, Android will command a market share of 45.4 percent in 2015, compared with Nokia’s paltry 0.2 percent.
The sharp decline for the former Finnish mobile giant’s fortunes has been firmly placed on its alliance with Microsoft in developing the Windows Phone 7 platform.
But all is not lost for Nokia and Microsoft, as the Windows platform is set to command a healthy 20.9 percent by 2015, up from 5.5 percent in 2011 and surpassing even the mighty iOS’ market share of 15.3 percent.
This will place it as the number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.
The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2 percent in 2011 as more consumers and business users swap their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features.
According to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.
Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst at IDC said: “Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional. Last year’s high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases.”
The battle for mind and market share has resulted in stiff competition among smartphone operating systems, won mostly by a steady stream of new models and features over the past couple of years.
The strategy has proved lucrative, expecially for vendors of Android systems, says Ramon Llamos, senior research analyst at IDC.
“Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,” he said.
“For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users.”
In terms of market share, by 2015, Android will lead with 45.4 percent, followed by Windows with 20.9 percent, and Apple’s iOS in third place with 15.3 percent, says IDC. Blackberry holds onto fourth position with 13.7 percent of marketshare, while the other operating systems leap in front of Symbian with 4.6 percent.
