The Apple Watch is set to lead the global smartwatch market through to 2020 amid a surge in wearables demand, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).The IDC has forecast that worldwide wearable device shipments will reach 110 million by the end of 2016, growth of 38.2 per cent over the previous year.
Looking further ahead, the IDC expects that more vendors and fast-growing consumer awareness will contribute to double-digit growth throughout its 2015-2020 forecast period, with shipments reaching 237.1 million wearable devices in 2020.
With smartwatch and wristband shipments expected to reach a combined total of 100 million shipments this year, up from 72.2 million in 2015, other form factors, such as clothing, eyewear and hearables, are expected to reach 9.8 million units, and will more than double their share by 2020.
“Although smartwatches like the Apple Watch or Android Wear devices capture the spotlight, they will only account for a quarter of all wearables in 2016 and will grow to about a third by 2020,” Jitesh Ubrani, IDC Mobile Device Trackers senior research analyst, commented.
“It’s time to start thinking about smarter watches – traditional watches with some sort of fitness or sleep tracking, but are unable to run apps – built by classic watch makers. These devices have the potential of making the technology invisible while still integrating themselves within day-to-day activities.”
Vendors could “side-step some of the typical challenges that smartwatch platforms face” by creating smarter watches, Ubrani commented.
“There’s no need to create a developer or app ecosystem for one thing, and there’s plenty of room for simpler devices that appeal to the average user while smartwatches continue catering to the technophiles,” he stated.
Smartwatches with an app ecosystem, meanwhile – such as Apple’s watchOS and Google’s Android Wear – are expected to gain in prominence, amid evolving products and experiences.
“With few exceptions, this part of the smartwatch market is still in its initial stages,” Ramon Llamas, IDC wearables team research manager, commented.
“We expect to see major changes, with smartwatches that actually look like watches, user interfaces that are easier than swipes and gestures, applications that rival those on our smartphones, and connections to networks, systems and other devices. This puts pressure on smartwatch platforms to develop further from where they are today.”
The IDC has forecast that watchOS will ship 14 million units in 2016, commanding a 49.4 per cent market share, growing to 31 million units in 2020, at which point it will command a 37.6 per cent market share.
Android Wear is forecast to ship 6.1 million units this year, capturing a 21.4 per cent share of the market, growing to 28.8 million units in 2020, commanding a 35 per cent market share.
Among the other operating systems, the IDC has forecast that Tizen will ship 3.2 million units this year for an 11.3 per cent market share, growing to 5.4 million units in 2020, at which point it will command a 6.6 per cent market share.
