The console battle between Microsoft, SOny and Nintendo is still anybody’s game, says gaming research firm DFC Intelligence. But none of the new consoles will be as popular as PS2 was in its day.
“The video game business is changing in major ways. Sony and Nintendo are shaking up the industry with new business models. These are uncertain times where neither conventional wisdom nor historical data necessarily predict who the winners and losers will be during the next three-to-five years,” said author of the DFC report Video Games at the Crossroads: Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and the Battle for the Console Market, George Chronis.
DFC analyst David Cole said “Three solid video game systems are competing for market share and it will probably be two to three years before a true leader is determined.”
But Cole also said, while any of the new consoles could be the winner – none will enjoye the market dominance that PS2 saw when it was released.
“At its peak PlayStation 2 software alone accounted for about 30% of worldwide interactive entertainment revenue. By 2011 we forecast that all console software combined will only account for about a third of worldwide sales. With multiple console platforms, a growing portable market and online game market, platform diversity is the key to success,” said Cole.
DFC also predicts the video game market, including revenue from video game hardware and software, dedicated portable system hardware and software, PC games, and online PC and console games, will grow to as much as $44 billion in 2011.