IDC has released new figures that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 55 percent year over year in 2011, nearly four times the overall mobile phone market, as a growing number of users turn in their feature phones for more advanced devices.
And Android is expected to carve out nearly 40 percent of the market in the second half of this year, as vendors including Samsung and Motorola continue to make Google’s OS the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies.
According to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, total shipments of smartphones in 2011 will be 472 million compared to 305 million units shipped last year.
What’s more staggering however, is that the figure is expected to nearly double to 982 million by the end of 2015.
The growth is being fuelled by falling average selling prices, increased phone functionality, and lower-cost data plans making devices more accessible to a wider range of users, said IDC.
Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst at IDC said: “The smartphone floodgates are open wide. Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their ‘talk-and-text’ devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years.”
The exponential growth is also due to a shifting OS landscape, which offers users a seamless, intuitive experience, according to senior research analyst Ramon Llamas.
“End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems…Developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”
Android already passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in Q4 2010. IDC expects Symbian will steadily lose share throughout the forecast period as its biggest supporter Nokia transitions its smartphone strategy to Windows Phone.
This will present a huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing. Still, Nokia’s commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base of Symbian-powered smartphone users on par with its competitors.
However, despite Nokia switching its allegiance to Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile, WP7 won’t make huge gains in smartphone market share, claims IDC.
Nokia is not expected to introduce Windows Phone powered smartphones in large volumes until 2012, and the release of Microsoft’s Mango-powered smartphones are also not expected to reach the market until late this year.
Nevertheless, IDC says the WP7 OS will defend a number 2 rank, keeping more than 20 percent share in 2015.
As for Steve Jobs’ widely admired iOS, it was the third ranked OS going into 2011 and will remain a force in the mobile phone market throughout the forecast.
After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies.
Although iOS is expected to decline in market share by a small margin, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth through the end of 2015.
Meanwhile RIM’s BlackBerry OS is expected to maintain its position as a Top 4 smartphone operating system going through to 2015.
Like iOS, the BlackBerry OS will experience market share decline even as shipment volumes grow, said IDC.
