New research show that the TV market is still growing despite GFK claims that the market is set to hit turbulent times in Australia. It’s also predicted that LED TV prices will fall and that demand for plasma will be “robust”.
According to DisplaySearch TV shipments in 2010 will reach more than 243 million units, a 16% increase from 2009. LCD TV shipments are expected to grow to 188 million units worldwide, up from 145 million units in 2009.
In Australia TV prices could fall even further as most TV vendors trade in the US dollar when buying goods from overseas. This coupled with the Australian dollar hitting $0.99 to the US dollar could result in cost savings being passed onto consumers say retailers however most analysts are tipping that vendors will “pocket” the savings in an effort to make up for heavy discounting in the first half of 2010.
DisplaySearch said that LCD remains the dominant TV technology worldwide, accounting for at least half of all TV shipments in nearly every region including Australia, they also said that demand driven by big sporting events was starting to wane and that the FIFA World Cup were had been “somewhat disappointing” in both Australia and Europe resulting in several vendors having large build ups of unsold inventory in the channel.
Despite weak sales in markets like Europe and the USA solid growth in markets like Asia Pacific will offset this weakness and contribute to 20% Y/Y growth during the second half of 2010 said DisplaySearch.
At the same time, LCD TV street prices are expected to start falling more vigorously in Q4’10, especially for LED-backlit LCD TVs as an oversupply of LCD TV panels resulted in falling panel costs during Q3’10.
Consumers are very interested in LED LCD TV technology, but premiums were very high in early 2010. Manufacturers have greatly increased the assortment of LED LCD TVs in their line-ups, and consumers still seem to be waiting for premiums to fall on LED-backlit models.
Sales of lower-priced CCFL-backlit LCD TVs continue to decline despite having much lower prices. DisplaySearch projects that average LED LCD TV prices will fall at twice the rate of CCFL LCD TV prices during Q4’10. This should cause an improvement in growth rate, in some markets.
DisplaySearch expects LED LCD TVs to account for the majority of LCD TV shipments in 2011, as the cost premium reduces quickly and manufacturers continue to transition their LCD TV line-ups away from older CCFL technology. More than 50% of LCD TV shipments will be based on LED backlight technology in 2011, up from 20% in 2010.
Demand for plasma TV continues to be robust, as LCD TV price declines have slowed while plasma TV has maintained similar rates of price erosion. The result is that plasma TV shipments are now expected to approach 18 million units in 2010, a 25% increase from 2009, even though shipments actually declined Y/Y.
According to Hisakazu Torii, DisplaySearch Vice President of TV Research, “Because of the very strong pricing advantage of large screen sizes and large improvements in power consumption and thinness, plasma TV continues to be a key display technology in the TV category, especially among a base of fans that favor this technology for picture quality and 3D performance.”