Despite earlier reports that the mobile phone was growing research group IDC has now said that mobile phone shipments fell 11.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008 when compared to the same quarter of 2007.
This is the first time in seven years that sales of the devices have slipped despite sales being up 4.3% overall in 2008. IDC is also forecasting that sales will drop over 8% in 2009.
“Expectations for 2009 were negative going into the fourth quarter of 2008. However, worse-than-expected results and a steady flow of negative economic news are indicating that 2009 will be gloomier than predicted,” said Ryan Reith, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker.
Mature regions such as Japan, the United States, and Western Europe all face tough times, with predictions of shipment declines ranging from -24.6% to -12.4% throughout 2009. In these markets, operators are struggling to find the right mix of marketing and device subsidy to entice consumers to spend while finances are tight.
The double-digit growth rates the BRIC countries have seen in the past are also expected to slow to a collective growth rate of 0.3%. India still remains the bright spot within that group, while Russia is experiencing a severe cut back in consumer spending and is predicted to drop significantly.
Related: Over 1.2 billion mobile phones sold in 2008 .
The outlook for converged mobile devices (also known as smartphones) has also been scaled back as a result of the industry’s changing dynamics. The previously stated 8.7% growth has been reduced to 3.4% as IDC expects all segments to be effected. In the years to come the industry will undoubtedly migrate more toward the converged device segment, yet in tough economic times the high price point these devices carry can tend to stand out in the consumers eye.
IDC expects sales of converged mobile devices to increase by 7.9% down dramatically from a whopping 68.2% increase in 2008. Traditional phone sales are expected to fall 20.3% after a 13.8% decline in 2008. Combined U.S. sales are predicted to drop 14.8% after a 4.7% decline in 2008.
