The 2 percent drop for 2009 is a major improvement on the forecast Gartner made back in June of a 6 percent drop in unit shipments for the year.
Its forecast for 2010 is slightly stronger than rival IDC, which recently predicted 11 percent growth in overall units, with desktop shipments roughly flat and portables expected to be up 16.5 percent (CDN, Sep. 18).
Gartner’s upbeat forecast was echoed in San Francisco by Intel CEO Paul Otellini, who told a 4000-strong audience at the Intel Developers Forum that PC sales would soon bottom, leading to a major resurgence in 2010. “I think [the PC industry] is more than resilient, it’s amazing,” Otellini said.
However, while unit shipments are set to boom in 2010, in dollar terms Gartner is expecting sales to be “more or less flat” in 2010; IDC predicts a gain of about 5 percent in value.
Gartner says worldwide PC shipments are on pace to reach 285 million units in 2009, a 2 percent decline from 2008 shipments of 291 million. “PC demand appears be running much stronger than we expected back in June, especially in the US and China,” said George Shiffler, a Gartner research director.
“Mobile PC shipments have regained substantial momentum, especially in emerging markets, and the decline in desk-based PC shipments is slowing down.”
Gartner does not expect the release of Windows 7 next month to significantly influence PC demand by the end of the year.
“At best, Windows 7 may generate a modest bump in home demand and possibly some added demand among small businesses,” said Shiffler. “However, we aren’t expecting most larger businesses, governments and educational institutions to express strong demand for the new operating system until late 2010.
“We’re actually more concerned that vendors will overestimate the initial demand for Windows 7 and end up carrying excess inventories into 2010.”
